Category: Opinions

Mortgages: What is a Mortgage?

Posted by – April 29, 2011

What is a Mortgage?

In most countries, a mortgage is the primary way that prospective homeowners have of buying a house, flat or land on which to build a property, collectively called real estate. This type of mortgage is called a residential mortgage or home loan. They are most often taken up by individuals or couples More

The Euro Zone’s Inbuilt Flaw: Rising Rates Punishes the Weak

Posted by – April 29, 2011

Fastest Euro Zone Price Rise in 3 Years

Credit: jurjen_nl

20 April 2011.

Are all nations in the European Union created equal? The European Central Bank seems to think so. And is hiking interest rates by a quarter of a percent signaling a “return to normal standards,” according to Ewald Nowotny, member of the ECB Governing Council and governor of the Austrian National Bank. The ECB raised interest rates this month for the first time since July 2008.

Policymaker Nout Wellink said the bank neded to remain “very alert” on inflation dangers to avoid falling behind the curve. However ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said he does not see alarming signs of second-round inflationary effects.

But for counties like Greece, Portugal and Ireland which are still coming out of the 2008 economic crisis, increasing the cost of borrowing will only worsen the economy. On the other hand, for countries like Germany whose economies are out of the slump and travelling smoothly, increased interest rates will improve the economy by slowing inflation – a current concern.

Official euro zone data showed inflation rose to 2.7 percent in March – above the 2 percent target ceiling.

In April 2011, the euro zone price rise was the fastest in 3 years. Euro zone growth in the service sector slowed, however factories ramped up their production as prices rose. Markit’s April Purchasing Managers Indexes also showed business activity in Germany and France outpaced the rest of euro zone – but problems continued in other countries.

The inherent problem with the euro zone idea is different countries need different monetary policies. A policy that is good for one country, is not good for the other. If not catastrophic.

In a report from Stratfor:

‘Nowotny indicated that the move was more symbolic than it was practical, although it did signal the ECB’s intention to start dealing with Europe’s rising inflation. Second, the Italian interior minister accused the French government of being “hostile” for not offering help as Rome deals with an influx of migrants fleeing chaos in Libya and post-revolutionary Tunisia.’

ECP Monetary Policy

The Euro bound Europe’s major economies by removing the ability to devalue other euro members. The common currency was also supposed to bring about convergence across economies. However the ongoing sovereign debt crisis contradicts the idea – and has forced Europeans to reinforce rules if they will actually converge over the next decade.

Raising the interest rates, won’t help the convergence either.

At first glance, raising interest rates to slow inflation in the euro zone seems an effective strategy for Germany for example. The rest of the region however is still coping drowning in debt and unemployment. On average, inflation in the euro zone is rising due to higher energy prices – costs that have cut into people’s income and reflected in operating balance sheets.

However these countries are already showing signs of deflationary trends. The argument that remains: is a one-size-fits-all monetary policy beneficial to euro zone’s most troubled economies?

Higher interest rates are set to impact households and mortgages tied to ECB’s policy rate. And in the current environment, the interest rate hike will really, cripple the rest of Europe (except Germany).

The Euro zone

One important factor that catalyzes convergence is the free movement of labor from high unemployment areas to areas of low unemployment and high opportunity. The most effective currency unions allow and encourage a free labor movement such as the US.

However unlike the US, Europe faces much greater obstacles. Like Stratfor illustrated:

‘it is far more difficult for a resident of Galicia, where unemployment is more than 20 percent due to a collapse of the construction industry, to hitch a trailer to his car and move to Baden-Wuerttemberg, where unemployment is around 4 percent. There are also cultural and linguistic barriers unlike anything Americans face, although the Europeans have at least removed administrative barriers to cross-country employment and have removed borders between the states, as any visitor or resident of Europe can attest to. These may not encourage perfect labor mobility, but they are important symbolic and technical steps toward an eventual convergence.’

Europe’s tab for Libyan unrest and Tunisia revolution

Italy’s shores are flooded with 20,000 migrants and Italy wants its EU neighbors to pick up the slack and take in some migrants; any takers on Muslim migrants anyone?

Certainly not France.

‘In response, Italy has decided to issue the migrants temporary resident permits so that they can cross Europe’s unregulated borders. It is Rome’s way of forcing its neighbors to pick up the slack. The French countered with its Interior Ministry ordering border officials to make sure that migrants from third countries crossing its borders are checked for a number of conditions, in addition to the possession of residence permits, before being allowed entry. However, there are no such border officials on the Franco-Italian border. Therefore, either France intends to restaff vacated border posts and impose checks on all travelers, or Paris is bluffing.’

The lack of support for open European borders is clear. To France: A temporary permanent residency is not sufficient for third nationals to set up in another EU member state. Italy says: Why should it shoulder the majority of negative effects of the North African fiasco merely because of geography, especially when Paris has been so vociferous about intervening in Libya and escalating EU member state involvement in the crisis?

Both are legally and principally correct, but all just to show how superficial the idea of an integrated Europe really is.

And Germany?

Well, the German-dominated ECB is pursuing a German-dominated monetary policy. France has no sympathy for its neighbor. At the first sign of crisis, national interests overcome post-national aspirations.

Liz Zuliani

EconomyWatch

 

Finance, Financing

Posted by – April 29, 2011

< Finance is a branch of economics that deals with the management of funds, financial resources and other assets. In broader terms, finance is raising or investing money either as equity or debt. Finance is a wide-ranging term which includes funding, investments, trading and risk management (through various types of insurance policies). More

Italy Economy

Posted by – April 29, 2011

< Italy is located in Southern Europe, a peninsula extending into the central Mediterranean Sea, northeast of Tunisia. Its terrain is mostly rugged and mountainous; with some plains, coastal lowlands and a predominantly Mediterranean climate. More

Hong Kong Jobless Thanks To Minimum Wage Law

Posted by – April 29, 2011

Michael Chan, Chairman of Fast-Food Giant Cafe de Coral:

Will issue a profit warning if the hourly rate proposed by the unions became law.

Credit: For91days

21 April 2011.

Hong Kong’s unemployment rate has fallen to an all time pre-crisis low of 3.4 per cent, the Census and Statistics Department announced this week. Critics blame Hong Kong’s first minimum wage law for job losses. “In view of the still strong economic performance and positive hiring sentiment in the corporate sector, the unemployment rate is likely to remain at low levels in the near term,” said Matthew Cheung, Hong Kong’s labour secretary. But he warned the city would “remain vigilant in monitoring any economic and employment implications.”

Hong Kong’s US$3.61 minimum wage bill was passed amid growing concerns over the income gap – and is now being blamed for job losses among thousands of low-paid workers. Hong Kong’s half elected, half appointed legislature passed the minimum-wage bill in July 2010 that will take it effect on 1 May 2011.But is minimum wage good for any economy?

The Singapore government contemplated a similar minimum wage law earlier this year but was opposed by leaders and the public for fear such laws would lead to unemployment. Especially in the low-wage job sector – or give jobs away to cheaper labour from neighbouring countries, and leave locals unemployed. If Hong Kong passes the legislation, Singapore will be one of the few countries left that does not have such a mandated provision.

Should a minimum wage law cause unemplyment? The general consensus is yes. Not because we want it too, it’s just what happens when a mandate price floor is introduced to wages. Even though there are workers willing to work for less, just to get some work – the price floor changes the equilibrium point and causes a shift in the workers’ demand curve. In short, employers will hire fewer workers at higher wages.

Australia and New Zealand were the first countries to establish minimum wage laws in the ‘80’s. A century after those reforms, some critics argue that minimum wage rates are too ow. Others say the laws are to blame for  inflation, high prices and unemployment.

Can nations on the rise, like Hong Kong, Singapore and Emerging Economies introduce and implement minimum wage laws without impacting their robust growth?

Legislator and union organizer Lee Cheuk-yan feels the law “symbolizes that Hong Kong has said goodbye to shameful wages and embraced social justice for workers. This means goodbye to unfettered capitalism” speaking to AFP.

China preserved Hong Kong’s capitalist system after the British returned the territory in 1997. The government resisted a minimum wage in order to keep labour markets free until pressure to control the city’s widening wealth gap to introduce the policy. However, the new law doesn’t cover the nearly 280,000 mostly Filipino and Indonesian domestic workers who work as live-in help for Hong Kong families.

Any minimum wage law “must balance the interests of every party,” Secretary for Labor and Welfare Matthew Cheung told legislators Saturday. Hong Kong’s law will require a task group  to review wage levels every two years, instead of once a year as proposed by trade unions. “We will have to use public pressure to campaign for a fair minimum wage level, since under the legal framework the control will be largely in the hands of the government,”  said Lee.

Hong Kong is one of the world’s richest territories with a 2010 per capita GDP of US$ 31,798.74, but came last in income equality among 38 countries and territories the United Nations Development Programme’s 2009 Human Development Report ranked as the world’s most advanced.

Hong Kong’s minimum-wage proposal had faced stiff opposition from some of its largest employers, with some threatening large-scale layoffs. Michael Chan, chairman of fast-food giant Cafe de Coral (Forbes 35th richest man in Hong Kong in 2009) said his company might issue a profit warning if the hourly rate proposed by the unions became law.

Is there a need for minimum wage? Tell us what you think about the minimum wage debate below.

Liz Zuliani

EconomyWatch.com

 

The United Kingdom Import and Export

Posted by – April 29, 2011

< The UK Economy ranks sixth in the world in terms of export of commodities and services. The UK Economy does not lag far behind the US in terms of foreign investments. The expanding European Union as well as the large untapped markets in the developing countries are opening new avenues to earn huge financial gains and the overseas investment companies of UK are making rapid in roads into them. More

Russia Economy

Posted by – April 29, 2011

<  Russia, also known as the Russian Federation, is a country in northern Eurasia. Russia is the largest country in the world in terms of area (more than 6.6 million square miles). Russia shares its borders with Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, China and North Korea. Russia is also the ninth most populous nation in the world with more than 142 million inhabitants. The nation encompasses the entire northern Asia and 40% of the European continent. It spans 11 time zones and enjoys a varied climate. While European and Asian Russia enjoy a humid continental and subarctic climate, the Black Sea area near Sochi enjoys a subtropical climate. More

A Dozen Shocking Personal Finance Statistics

Posted by – April 28, 2011

< < 10. Thirty-two percent of home loan applications were rejected last year. Showing just how many of us, are really financially responsible enough to be considered for the responsibility (and eligibility) of a mortgage. More

Brazil Economy

Posted by – April 28, 2011

< Brazil is the largest country in South America and the fifth largest country in the world in terms of geographical area. Brazil is bound by the Atlantic Ocean to the east and enjoys a coastline of more than 4,600 miles. The country is bordered on the north by Venezuela, Guyana, Surinam and French Guiana. It is bordered on the northwest by Colombia. On the west, Brazil is bordered by Bolivia and Peru, while Argentina and Paraguay make up the southwest borders. Uruguay borders Brazil on the south. Brazil is the fifth most populous country in the world, being home to more than 190 million. More

England Economy

Posted by – April 28, 2011

< England is a part of the United Kingdom and shares land borders with Scotland and Wales. Towards its North West, South East and East are the Irish Sea, Celtic Sea and North Sea. England comprises over 100 small islands. More

Genuine Recovery

Posted by – April 28, 2011

Most economic indicators suggest that the word ‘recession’ no longer applies to the state of the UK economy, there is growth in the economy, albeit limited, and whilst the financial markets have been volatile in recent weeks, talk of a double-dip recession is still just that: talk.

More

South America Economy

Posted by – April 28, 2011

Although South America has not escaped the economic crisis of 2008-2009, it has been relatively resilient to the crisis compared to other nations. While the overall GDP of the region shrunk by 3.6% in 2009, the Latin American countries rebounded from the shock rapidly. The rate of recovery is projected to be significant in 2010, as trade with China and the US is expected to reach massive proportions. Also, countries such as South Korea, Vietnam, Russia and India are targeting Latin America as a viable investment and development proposition. Renewable energy sectors are giving South America newer opportunities for foreign investors to boost their respective nations’ renewable energy resources. However, Latin American countries must display strong political stability and mitigate the risks for foreign capital investments. Public-private partnership initiatives are also moving at a rapid pace in South America than in the US, where investments can meet the growing demands of infrastructure development. More

World Industry Directory

Posted by – April 28, 2011

World industries drive the global economy, collectively transacting almost USD $70 trillion. An industry is a collection of companies that all perform similar functions. Industry can be used to refer to all company groups, or specifically to industry as being a set of productive entities that utilize productive forces to convert a simple input to a processed final product. The size of various industies vary by country, level of development, and demand in each region. This section of EconomyWatch.com introduces all the major industries and classification systems, together with key industry data.

Industries can be categorized in the following ways:

Offering Based Industry Classification

Does the industry provide products, services, or a mix of both products and services?

Production Based Industry Classification

Does the industry rely more on natural resources, human capital or financial capital? Industries can also be described as resource-intensive, labour-intensive or capital-intensive?

Classifying Industries by Sector

Is the industry in the primary, secondary or tertiary sector?

 

  • Primary Industry :- The agricultural, farming and fisheries businesses come under this head.
  • Secondary Industry :- The industries that utilize machines, factories or human labor to convert raw materials into a processed final product. The manufacturing industries, or heavy industry, are typical examples of Secondary Industry types.
  • Tertiary Industry :- Services-based industries are known as tertiary industries. Retail, food & beverage and professional services are examples of Tertiary Industry Classifying Industries by SizeIs the industry a small-scale or cottage indutry, a Small & Medium Business (SMB or SME) industry, or a global industry dominated by Multi-National Corporations (MNCs)?Target Market Classification

    Is the industry export-oriented and international, or domestic market focused?

    Concentration Classification

    Is the market fragmented, with many small ‘mom and pop’ businesses, or is it consolidated, with rounds of mergers and acquisitions leading to a few dominant players?

    World Industries
    Global Industry (Overview)

    Financial Services Industry

    Insurance Overview

    Insurance Industry

    Banking Industry

    Mortgage Industry

    Finance Industry

    World Steel Industry

    Oil Industry

    Coal Industry

    Industrial Revolution

    Metal Industry

    Pharmaceutical Industry

    Chemical Industry

    Manufacturing Industry

    Textile Industry

    Mining Industry

    Paper Industry

    Automobile Industry

    Industry Report

    Labor Intensive Industry Capital Intensive Industry

    Small Scale Industries

    Cottage Industry

    SME Definition: What Do SMEs Need?

    Stationery Industry

    Wood Industry, Timber Industry

    Health Care Industry

    Biotechnology Industry

    Education Industry

    Sector

    Industry Statistics

    Growth Industry

    Market Industry

    R&D, Research and Development

    Construction Industry

    Infant Industry Argument

    Agrarian Reform

    Industry Subsidy

    Advertising Industry

    Marketing Industry

    Industry Standard

    Petroleum Industry

    Media Industry

    Packaging Industry

    Food Industry

    Energy Industry

    Electricity Industry Logistics Industry

    Asia Industry, Asian Industry

    European Industry, Europe Industry

    Industry Trends

    Major Industry

    Industry Policy

    Plastic Industry

    Printing Industry

    Business Industry

    Retail Industry

    Industry Research

    Market Share

    Telecommunications Industry FMCG Industry

    Industry Survey

    Engineering Industry

    Airline Industry

    Aviation Industry

    Industry Technology

    Travel Industry

    Transportation Industry

    Hospitality Industry

    Shipping Industry

    Shipbuilding Industry

    Tourism Industry Growth

    Business Process Outsourcing Industry

    Casino Industry

    Online Gambling Industry

    Cricket Industry

    Defense Industry

    Entertainments Industry

    Drugs Industry

    Porn Industry

    Sex Industry

    Film Industry

    Football Industry

    Formula one Industry

    Industrial Sector

    Nanotechnology Industry

    Oil Services Industry

    Outsourcing Industry

    Services Sector

    Sports Industry

    Utilities Industry

    Indian Cricket Industry

    Indian Outsourcing Industry

    The financial, banking and insurance industries, underpin all other world industries, as we have seen during the Financial Crisis. As a result, they deserve special focus.

     

    Financial Industry

    The current turmoil in the global financial industry is a result of financial tensions that started brewing in the US in 2007. These financial hiccups culminated into the demise of leading financial institutions. The financial crisis engulfed other developed and developing economies and turned into a full-blown global economic crisis by September 2008. The result was destabilized banking systems, a credit crunch, declining consumer confidence and a downturn in GDP growth rates for most countries.

    In order to combat the situation, the US government planned to inject $700 billion injected funds into the economy. The US and European authorities took initiatives such as providing funds to firms to prevent them from declaring bankruptcy, taking over leading financial institutions, providing liquidity and lowering interest rates. The recovery is expected to continue with continued flow of credit and the stabilization of the global financial markets.

    Banking Industry

    The global banking industry is undergoing intense transformation to negate the risks posed by competing instruments. Certain trends observed in the banking industry to remain profitable are:

    • Strategic rethinking vis-à-vis products and markets
    • Consolidation and restructuring of banks
    • Focus on implementing technological innovations, such as e-banking and e-finance
    • Increased inter-industry acquisitions
    • Enhanced focus on pensions and mutual funds to help decrease government deficit

    The current dismal conditions notwithstanding, a McKinsey & Co research report predicts the doubling of revenues and profits for the banking industry by 2016.

    Insurance Industry

    The current economic slowdown poses several challenges to the insurance industry, in the form of capital crunches, instable asset values and decreased non-life premium rates. The insurance industry needs to take the following steps to fight these challenges:

    • Effective risk management
    • Consolidations and mergers that help increase revenue and scale of operations
    • Better distribution through direct selling
    • Improved agent relationship
    • Effective use of the Internet
    • Enhanced customer relationship management
    • Compliance with security and capital regulations

    Although these major world industries are currently experiencing a slowdown, initiatives are in place to ensure growth in the near future.

    World Industry: Others

    Among the other world industries are:

    • Aerospace and Defense
    • Airlines
    • Automotive Retailing and Services
    • Banks: Commercial and Savings
    • Beverages
    • Building Materials
    • Chemicals
    • Computer Software
    • Computers and Office Equipment
    • Construction
    • Diversified Financials
    • Electronics and Electrical Equipment
    • Energy
    • Engineering
    • Entertainment
    • Food and Drug Stores
    • Food Consumer Products
    • Food Production
    • Food Services
    • Forest and Paper Products
    • General Merchandisers
    • Health Care: Insurance and Managed Care
    • Health Care: Pharmacy and Other Services
    • Household and Personal Products
    • Industrial and Farm Equipment
    • Information Technology Services
    • Insurance
    • Mail, Package and Freight Delivery
    • Metals
    • Mining, Crude-oil production
    • Motor Vehicles and Parts
    • Network and Other Communications Equipment
    • Petroleum Refining
    • Pharmaceuticals
    • Pipelines

Investing in Renewable Energy

Posted by – April 28, 2011

The list is endless. The important thing to remember about any new industry is that not all companies make it. Just like in the dot.com boom, some companies grew while others collapsed over time. It is important, therefore, to conduct thorough research before placing hard earned money in any company.

The best investment policy is to keep your alternative energy portfolio as diversified as possible. One should consider stocks across various energy companies, such as solar, wind, geothermal, biofuel, water, hydroelectric, etc. It is advisable to invest with a long-term horizon. Today, the government might need to provide subsidies and incentives for alternative energy sources but in the long run, with the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the finite nature of fossil fuels, there will be only one way for the world to go – alternative energy.

What is true of all investments holds true for alternative energy investments – timing is key. The current global trends indicate that the time to invest in this sector may be right now.

Egypt Economy

Posted by – April 28, 2011

<  Located at a strategic trade location, Egypt is both a major North African economic power and the cultural leader of the Arab world. More

South Korea Economy

Posted by – April 28, 2011

South Korea Economy Reactions to Recession

A comparative look at the national debt figures against GDP will reveal that South Korea’s debt is at a mere 34%. The US debt figure is at 60.8%, Canada is at 62.3%, Italy is at 103.7%, France is at 67%, UK is at 47.2%, Germany is at 62.5%, Japan is at 170.4% and India is at 78%. Of course, South Korea did not come out of the 2008 global downturn, despite having survived the Asian financial crisis of 1998 due to various economic reforms and further opening up of trade and foreign investment. More

The World Economy

Posted by – April 28, 2011

Great Financial Crisis? What Great Financial Crisis?

That seems to be the attitude in 2011. Which worries us at EconomyWatch.com, because we do not believe that the underlying problems have been solved. If anything, they have been exacerbated.

But first, the numbers, taken as ever from our Economic Statistics Database.

World Economic Statistics at a Glance – 2011 Forecast

World GDP (PPP): $78.092 trillion

GDP Growth Rate: 3.3%

GDP Per Capita (PPP): $11,100

GDP By Sector: Services 63.4%, Industry 30.8%, Agriculture 5.8%

Growth In Trade Volume: 6.953%

Industrial Production Growth Rate: 4.6%

Population: 6.768 billion

Population Growth Rate: 1.133%

Urban Population: 50.5%

Urbanization Rate: 1.85% (125 million people move to cities every year)

The Poor (Income below $2 per day): Approx 3.25 billion (~ 50%)

Millionaires: Approx 10 million (~ 0.15%)

Labor Force: 3.232 billion

Inflation Rate – Developed Countries: 2.5%

Inflation Rate – Developing Countries: 5.6%

Unemployment Rate: 8.8%

Investment: 23.4% of GDP

Public Debt: 58.3% of GDP

Market Value of Publicly Traded Companies: $48.85 trillion, or 62.6% of World GDP

Sources: EconomyWatch.com Economic Statistics Database, CIA World Factbook, IMF, World Bank

The World Economy in 2010 was worth $74.007 trillion in GDP terms, using the Purchasing Price Parity (PPP) method of valuation. This is expected to grow to $78.092 trillion in 2011.

The overall global economy averaged a 3.2 per cent growth rate between 2000 and 2007, suffering a slight dip in 2001 – 2002 thanks to the Dot Com Crash, but continuing to grow throughout that period. In fact 2004 – 2007 were boom years. The Emerging Markets, led by the giants of China, India, Russia and Brazil (the BRIC countries) had been posting 7 per cent – 10 per cent growth rates for years. Property and stock market booms had brought consistent growth in North America and Europe. Investment was bringing economic development to much of the Middle East and Africa, and even Japan was recovering from its deflationary ‘Lost Years’.

Economic conditions within these countries play a major role in setting the economic atmosphere of less well-to-do nations and their economies. In many aspects, developing and less developed economies depend on the developed countries for their economic wellbeing.

Theories were even circulating that thanks to the growth of the developing world, we might enjoy years of unfettered growth, as new markets would go through successive growth spurts and counter the effects of slowing growth elsewhere. It was suggested that Asia was ‘decoupling’ from the US and able to grow under its own steam thanks to its two ‘Awakening Giants’.

Sadly, that turned out to be hogwash, as deregulation allowed western banks to build up unsustainable levels of debt that brought the global economy to the brink of depression.

As the ‘Sub-Prime’ Crisis morphed into a fully fledged crash then global Financial Crisis, 2008 started to bomb and 2009 became the first year that the world recorded a loss in GDP since World War II. 2.031% was wiped out of the global economy – or $3.3 trillion of value.

You can see the full World GDP Growth data series here.

We are now in what the IMF calls a ‘Two Speed Recovery Process’.

Advanced economies have now shrunk as much as feared, but they are either growing slowly or stagnating, with unsustainable debt levels and persistently high unemployment. The US is continuing to stimulate its economy – although it seems more like giving free money to banks who then horde it – which continues to raise debt levels, while the Europeans, thanks to the Eurozone Crisis of 2010, are more focused on budget cuts, helping to reduce debts but keeping unemployment high with a chance of a second recession hitting (the so-called W-shaped recovery). Japan continues to struggle with high debt, a strong currency and deflation.

There are exceptions, of course. Australia and Canada have both done well from rising commodity prices and well-managed banks, while the amazing German high-end export machine goes from strength to strength – putting further pressure on its Eurozone partners in the process.

Developing economies, on the other hand, are experiencing strong growth, as they continue to invest in their own infrastruccture, grow overall exports, and start to see increased levels of consumption from the hundreds of millions that they pull out of poverty every year, the tens of millions that join the middle class, and the millions that join the ranks of the rich.

This emerging market growth process is also leading to an urbanized planet. For the first time in 2010, the majority of the world’s population lived in cities (50.5% or 3.417 billion people), and that number is growing by over 125 million people a year.

This two-speed process has led to a rapid change of the politcal and economic power structure that has existed since the end of World War II.

During this period, we have seen China Overtake Japan as the world’s second largest economy, and the replacement of the old G7/ G8 structure with the G20, bringing together the twenty most important economies from both the advanced and developing worlds.

But let us get back to why we now find ourselves in a world where the ‘advanced’ economies are in such a sluggish mood.

 

Yes, There Was a Great Financial Crisis. No, it Wasn’t a ‘Freak’ Accident that No One Could Have Predicted. No, it Hasn’t Been Solved.

De-regulation allowed banks to grow bigger and bigger by taking on ever greater leverage – i.e. betting with borrowed or engineered money – against ever smaller capital reserves.

When valuations were going up, leverage helped to fatten profits. Bankers and their shareholders didn’t need to laugh all the way to the bank, since they already owned it.

But when markets turned (despite models that assumed that housing markets only ever went up) that leverage amplified losses. Vague concepts of ‘moral hazard’ quickly turned to a Too Big To Fail policy. The fear was that if one bank failed, the domino effect could take the whole system down.

And rather than set about cleaning up the system, western governments proceeded to save those banks with taxpayer money, while the commercial paper markets froze, the Baltic Dry Index went effectively to zero, and real unemployment started climbing to depression-era levels.

Bankers have since gone back to paying themselves billions in bonuses while their debts have effectively been nationlized and transferred to government debt. Meanwhile unemployment remains stubbornly high.

National Debt marked the second phase of the Great Financial Crisis, that started in 2009 with Dubai’s defaults. While Dubai was saved by the oil wealth of Abu Dhabi, Europe in 2010 was a different story. The structural problem of the European Union, in which Monetary Policy has been centralized while Fiscal Policy remains national, was fully exposed by the soaring bond costs for the PIIGS countries. The Eurozone Crisis started in Greece, quickly spread through Portugal and Ireland, and even threatend the UK.

The response involves loans that (surprise surprise) lets European banks keep their money, while austrity measures throw yet more people on the breadline. At the start of 2011, one in eight working age Spaniards is out of a job, while cuts to government services budgets are reaching 40 per cent in instances.

With the exception of the incredible German export machine, powered by the mittelstand, Europe is lowing at a prolonged period of low growth and civil unrest.

That on its own would be bad enough, but combined with the next problem, it could be truly disasterous.

Inflation is Back – and Stagflation is Coming

Just before the dawn of the 21st century, oil averaged $16 a barrel. By July 2008, less than 10 years later, oil hit a high of $146 a barrel – a stunning rise of more than 800%. From early 2007 to mid 2008 alone the price has risen more than threefold from the mid $40s.

During the Oil Crisis of the 1970s, oil spiked at a nominal peak of $38. In today’s prices (adjusted for inflation), that is $106, a figure that we blew past in early 2008.

With uprisings and revolution sweeping the arab world, we are now back over $100 at the start of 2011. It seems unlikely they will stay here, despite the growth of natural gas supplies. As emerging markets drive ever greater resource demands, a set of Wikileaks documents confirm what many have suspected; that the Saudis have exaggerated their reserves and Peak Oil has already been reached.

In fact there is a growing school of thought known as ‘Peak Oil’ that believes we have – or will soon – reach peak oil production capabilities. In the 1950s Dr M. King Hubbert correctly predicted peak oil and decline rates for the mainland US oil industry. His model came to be known as The Hubbert Peak Theory. It predicts that world peak oil production will be reached sometime between 2000 and 2010, and will decline thereafter.

The costs of commodities across the board are being driven up by the 3 billion inhabitants of the BRIC nations, whose wealth is growing at 8 per cent to 10 per cent a year, not to mention a further 2 billion or so in the other emerging markets.

As long as supply can’t keep up with demand, and with all the cheap money that is flowing into markets from western central banks, inflation growth is likely.

This could challenge social stability in poorer countries – and could signal stagflation for the advanced economies.

Conversely, it has been powering a period of strong economic growth in Africa, with countries like Ghana now leading global growth figures.

Although it should be fuelling similar growth stories in the Middle East, something else has been growing – descent.

A younger generation of well-educated but un- or under-employed youth are no longer ready to accept autocratic rule, corruption and a lack of civil society.

If they manage to bring real change to their countries, in the form of plural democracies and greater accountability, the world’s political economy could be re-configured in unexpected ways.

Iraq Economy

Posted by – April 28, 2011

GDP – per capita (PPP):

  • $3,300 (2009 est.)
  • $3,200 (2008 est.)
  • $3,100 (2007 est.)

 

note: data are in 2009 US dollars

 

Labor force:   8.175 million (2008 est.)

 

Unemployment rate:

 

  • 15.2% (2008 est.) 
  • 18% (2006 est.)

Population below poverty line: 25% NA%

 

Inflation rate (consumer prices):

  • 3.5% (2009 est.) 
  • 2.8% (2008 est.)

 

Personal Finance

Posted by – April 28, 2011

Personal Finance: Calculating Your Net Worth

An individual’s net worth indicates his/her financial standing. It is calculated by adding all personal assets and subtracting all the liabilities from that.

Personal assets generally comprise of:

  • Cash
  • Savings account and other
  • Checking account
  • Any other bank account or money market accounts
  • Any assets or investments owned such as stocks and shares, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, options, futures, currency, forex, commodities or alternative investments
  • Certificates of deposits (CDs)
  • Any property or real estate owned
  • Home inventory value, comprising of valuable home contents
  • Valuables like jewelry More

Middle East Central Asia Economy

Posted by – April 28, 2011

Technically, the Middle East is the region that includes southwestern Asia and Egypt. Most countries located in the region have rich deposits of oil and therefore rely on mining to run the economy.

 

The Middle East is also a region of extremes. If, on the one hand, rich countries such as Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia dominate the oil industry around the globe; poor countries such as Gaza and Yemen rely on subsidies and aids.

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