World Crisis Online

Marco Rubio, pictured with his mother in April before signing official documents to qualify him as a Republican candidate

The parking lot of an early voting site in Florida was crammed with electoral paraphernalia. But the banners and campaign tents from one candidate outdid the others: “I Love Marco,” “Marco = Jobs,” “Marco for Growth,” they screamed.

“I cannot even think of another alternative; this is the time for Marco; we need him at the Senate now, to save us,” said Nuri, a Cuban-American fan outside the polling station wearing a T-shirt emblazoned with “Marco for Senate”.

The Marco in question is Marco Rubio, the 39-year-old son of Cuban immigrants and a former state House Speaker, who is now the Republican party’s candidate for the Senate in next week’s midterm congressional elections.

This race is one of the most dramatic in the country. Only a few months ago, polls put Mr Rubio neck-and-neck with Charlie Crist, the state governor who had been tipped to take the Republican nomination until Mr Rubio’s startling Tea Party-backed surge.

Now Mr Crist is running as an independent in a three-way race with Democratic congressman Kendrick Meek. A poll of likely voters by three Florida newspapers this week gave Mr Rubio support of 41 per cent, while Mr Crist had 26 per cent and Mr Meek 20 per cent.

Florida is critical because it is famously a swing state – its voting patterns give a clue to which way the general political wind is blowing – and because it has 25 electoral college votes, giving it huge sway in presidential elections, as illustrated by the Bush v Gore stand-off in 2000.

The mood at the Miami-Dade Public Library polling station, where Mr Rubio spoke in English and Spanish, reflected a wider reality: with an unemployment rate of about 10 per cent and the third highest number of home foreclosures in the US, Florida has become a test of Barack Obama’s presidential performance.

“We understand this country is on the wrong track, on every level, and we have to change that track,” Mr Rubio told supporters. The Senate is expected to remain in Democratic control after next Tuesday’s election – though with a much reduced margin.

However, the House of Representatives is forecast by most pollsters to move into Republican hands.

Polls show that the vast majority of Floridians cite the poor economy as their priority.

“Lack of jobs, unemployment and the foreclosure crisis, all under the umbrella of a poor economy are the number one, the greatest issue of concern here in Florida,” said Fernand Amandi, a Miami-based pollster and political analyst.

“That’s part of the national discontent right now when it comes to many voters’ reaction to the Democratic party.”

Seeking to insulate Mr Meek’s campaign from criticism of Democrats’ economic management, former President Bill Clinton recently warned that a Republican takeover of Congress might endanger recovery. “We tested these ideas, ours [Democratic] and theirs [Republican]. Ours worked better,” Mr Clinton said at a campaign rally for Mr Meek this week.

Mr Crist, meanwhile, has tried to claim the middle ground, saying Mr Rubio is too far to the right.

“The people of Florida do not want a radical right extreme representative. That is why I left the Republican party, because of this kind of right-wing radicalism,” Mr Crist told the Financial Times from Tallahassee, the state capital.

But for many, Mr Rubio has captured a mood in the state. “The question now is not if Florida is moving in the direction of Marco Rubio; the question is if Marco Rubio is going to be a representative senator for Florida,” says Mr Amandi, the analyst.

Back at the early voting station, Nuri’s hopes for Mr Rubio go well beyond the Senate. “I definitely think he will go from the Senate to be president of the United States.

“If I have to compare him with somebody, I’d say he’ll be the next Ronald Reagan.”