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03/11

Laggard Germany back in fast lane

9:31 am by Mr. Wiseman. Filed under: Financial Times

It is no surprise that two of the biggest discount supermarkets, Aldi and Lidl, are based in Germany. It may be Europe’s biggest economy, but it has underperformed for two decades, recording total growth in output per person seven percentage points lower than the UK from reunification in 1990 until the financial crisis.

 
More FT videoThat changed last year. German growth was its highest since 1991. Unemployment fell to its lowest since 1992. The IFO business climate survey – to be updated on Friday – is at its highest yet. Businesses have never been more optimistic.

 

After a decade of austerity and saving, there are signs that Germans are ready to spend.

In fact, the scene is set for a consumer boom. European Central Bank interest rates reflect the troubles of the periphery, leaving Germany with the lowest real rates (adjusted for inflation) since 1976. Whisper it but even debt-averse Germans might take part in a credit boom.

For those who accept that German growth will boost the domestic economy, the question is how to profit from this. Inflation should rise, which is bad news for government bonds. Property should benefit from loose monetary conditions – a prerequisite of housing bubbles – but fewer than half of all Germans own their homes, making commercial property a more likely play.

In terms of shares, there is a dearth of large listed German equities exposed to consumer spending. A handful of retailers and several carmakers are pretty much the only large consumer cyclical stocks. Limited supply means it needs fewer investors to bet on consumers to push prices up.

German shares reflect a little of the new-found optimism, with price-earnings ratios on the blue-chip Dax index only slightly above the FTSE Eurofirst 300. If the dormant consumer has awoken, this gap will widen. But investors should be selective: the stock market reflects today’s export-driven economy, not the consumption of the future.