World Crisis Online

It was just over one year ago, at a campaign rally in Tucson, Arizona, that Sarah Palin, bemoaned the “BS” from the media “about us inciting violence”.

“We know violence isn’t the answer,” Ms Palin said at an event for her former running mate, Senator John McCain. “When we take up our arms, we’re talking about our vote.”

The political fallout from the Arizona shooting which targeted a Democratic congresswoman remains unpredictable, with much of the focus on the impact on the relationship between politicians and their constituents.

Two congressmen, Jason Chaffetz, a Republican from Utah, and Heath Shuler, a Democrat from North Carolina, both say they will now carry arms in case they need to protect themselves from members of the public.

But on a national level, Ms Palin is under particular pressure to enunciate her views about whether heated political rhetoric is fuelling violence in the community.

There is no evidence that Jared Lee Loughner, the 22-year-old who has been charged with the attempted assassination of Gabrielle Giffords, the congresswoman, was influenced by Ms Palin or ultraconservative Tea Party activists.

But the former Alaska governor has come under intense scrutiny for her frequent use of political language with violent undertones, including a posting on her fundraising website last year that displayed Ms Giffords’ congressional district as a target in the crosshairs of a gun. A spokeswoman for Ms Palin said the icons were never intended to be gun sights.

Political analysts say that the Tucson shooting rampage, which left six dead and 14 injured, has emerged as a political test for the former vice-presidential nominee.

Ms Palin’s star has risen in the past year as a potent and powerful symbol of the grassroots conservative movement, making her a potential candidate to be the Republican challenger to President Barack Obama in the 2012 election.

When confronted with controversy in the past, Ms Palin has been able to remain above the fray, often by criticising what she refers to as the “lamestream” media’s alleged liberal bias and by portraying herself as a political underdog.

But the Tucson tragedy could be trickier to navigate.

“Fairly or unfairly – and we know a lot of things in politics are unfair – she is in a position right now where her actions and words will be scrutinised, and we’ll see how she does,” said Vin Weber, a former Republican congressman who is a lobbyist in Washington.

“At some point, if Sarah Palin wants to be a national political leader, she cannot long appear to be ducking. So she is sort of being forced to address the issue, and I think she should and she can,” Mr Weber added.

In the immediate aftermath of the shooting, Ms Palin released a statement expressing her condolences to the victims and calling for “peace and justice”.

She also exchanged correspondence with Glenn Beck, the rightwing radio and Fox News television host.

In an e-mail exchange Mr Beck read on his morning radio programme, Ms Palin wrote: “I hate violence. I hate war. Our children will not have peace if politicos just capitalise on this to succeed in portraying anyone as inciting terror and violence.”

But Ms Palin had yet to make a public appearance or address the broader debate that has dominated the airwaves over whether political rhetoric needed to be more measured.

Thomas Mann, a congressional scholar at the Brookings Institution, said Ms Palin’s silence on those issues had reinforced her position in US politics, which he said was “highly appealing” to a segment of the population.

“She is demonstrating that she will always be a factional leader and not a leader of the whole country,” he said.

The focus on Ms Palin coincides with increased scrutiny from her party. Karl Rove, who was George W. Bush’s chief political adviser and still plays a key role in fundraising and advising Republican candidates, last year questioned whether Ms Palin was suitable for president.

While she still garners significant grassroots support, Republican insiders say it is far from clear whether Ms Palin, who had her own reality television show and is a regular contributor to Fox News, was prepared to trade in her rain maker status for a primary run that she could lose.